2020-21 IPEDS Data: Profile of Mid-Pandemic 12-Month Enrollments

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  1. Clay Shirky
    Clay Shirky says:

    Your first chart suggests another possible read of the data, after the Kaplan’s/Purdue and Ashford/UAGC deals: how many more such acquisitions of for-profits by publics are possible?

    Kaplans was just over 30K students, Ashford just under. If you set the threshold for “Meaningful addition to online capability/financially positive” at 25K, you could get an upper limit on attempts at those sorts of conversions.

    Your ‘Largest enrollments’ chart shows just 5 — Grand Canyon, Phoenix, APUS, Walden and Strayer — with GC trying to become a non-profit. How many more are below Strayer’s 60K but above 25K? Another 10? What if you go down to 10K students? Another 30?

    Even if Trump returns in 2024, two more years of a Democratic administration is more bad news for for-profits, and no one wants to run a business that can only make money under only one party. You’ve written so clearly about UAGC — I wonder if the bloom is off the rose for those deals, or if the pressure on for-profits and the absorption of Zovio makes fire-sale prices _more_ likely?

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